Bhutto Murder Suspects-pakistan Csi

Today's killing of Benizir Bhutto in Pakistan leaves far more questions than answers. Events are still moving rapidly. Trust me on this one, folks, like 9-11 the S&%t has yet to hit the fan. As with 9-11 the key here is to keep your eye on the ball. Not an easy thing when crap is coming at you at light speed.

Who stands to gain from Bhutto's death? We can run through the usual suspects and a few more. Hold on kids, its gonna be a bumpy ride. Here goes...

Perhaps she was martyred by her own side, or by Nawaz Shariff who was also running for Prime Minister and was a distant second behind Bhutto. He did show up at the hospital pretty quickly after the killing. Then again, he narrowly missed an assassination attempt while hanging a campaign banner near a Musharaf stronghold earlier in the day. One might theorize that Shariff hoped to gain something from a general uprising in the country. Perhaps. But after calling for Musharraf to step down he called for a general strike in Pakistan and threatened to boycott the elections. Sounds to me like both weren't meant to live through the day.

An obscure Italian website reported that Al Qa'eda claimed responsibility, and that Aymn al-Zawahiri ordered the hit in October because of Bhutto's anti-militant stand. There is no confirmation of that, and we must be careful not to simply believe the hit was the work of a boogey man. It may be true, but jumping simply to a conclusion will only get us what the farcical 9-11 commission gave us- a white-washing of critical facts and insights that would have exposed failures and incompetence by officials that might have prevented the attacks.

A move this audacious by Al Qa'eda would only lead to a crackdown and more international pressure, this as more US Special Forces are deploying to the border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, that is unless they were acting with someone else. Bin Laden has always thought long term, and this, though it might provide a short term benefit, would ultimately prove disastrous. We know that on the eve of 9-11 bin Laden struck at the Afghan Northern Alliance to buy his organization time and room to react to the predictable US response.

The Northwestern region of the country is a complex patchwork of trbal alliances. An unravelling of those alliances through a military crackdown would rob bin Laden of his greatest resources-the favor of the locals. Musharraf benefits from those alliances as well. It is far simpler and safer for him to deal with one chief, or a hand full of leaders, than dozens or hundreds. It makes him safer and makes administration, control and bribery much easier!

Musharraf remains suspect #1. Bhutto was wildly popular, with a 63% approval rating, and seemed destined to unseat and depose Musharraf. He needs bin Laden and the Taliban. And by playing both ends against the middle he gets US aid, which he them diverts to his cold war with India, and likely to support jihadist and independence groups fighting in Kashmir. Without that aid his power collapses and the country is in danger of fracturing. An already unstable nuclear nation is in danger of fracturing!

Truth is, we got in bed with a cockroach, and now his hooks are so deep that to free ourselves is really going to hurt. Worse, Musharraf is also in bed with Al Qa'eda and the Taliban. Crowded bed.Be careful about rolling over, who knows what might be there. The claims and fantasies that the boogey man bin Laden is solely to blame here are dubious. There have long been stories of Pakistan's intelligence services and their ties to these groups. Finding a dupe to martyr himself would be easy.

Blame rests at President Bushs' feet as well. He diverted forces from capturing bin Laden when they had him cornered. This may be the beginning of the real cost of going into Iraq, a nuclear crisis of nightmarish proportions.

Bin Laden was allowed to escape into Pakistan. Now both democracy and security may have been lost in Pakistan. What needs to happen here is that the elections are allowed to take place under the closet scrutiny of international election monitors, and that Musharraf step down with the legal transition of power and leave the country indefinitely. Second, the US must demand accountability for every dollar sent to Pakistan. With that we should monitor the flow of aid to be sure it is used to maximum efficiency to extracate bin Laden and the worst elements from that tribal patchwork, with an eye towards modernization and trade to the region so that we create new friends and allies instead of always creating more enemies.